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	<title>Comments on: 0/1 Loss Meaningless for Predicting Rare Events such as Exploding Manholes</title>
	<atom:link href="http://lingpipe-blog.com/2012/06/14/01-loss-meaningless-for-predicting-rare-events-such-as-exploding-manholes/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://lingpipe-blog.com/2012/06/14/01-loss-meaningless-for-predicting-rare-events-such-as-exploding-manholes/</link>
	<description>Natural Language Processing and Text Analytics</description>
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		<title>By: Bob Carpenter</title>
		<link>http://lingpipe-blog.com/2012/06/14/01-loss-meaningless-for-predicting-rare-events-such-as-exploding-manholes/#comment-19410</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Bob Carpenter]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 16 Jun 2012 04:41:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://lingpipe-blog.com/?p=5933#comment-19410</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I&#039;d agree that Berger could be intimidating if you don&#039;t already know math stats reasonably well.  I actually found it useful in that regard --- it was one of the first Bayesian stats books I studied.

There&#039;s a short discussion in Bishop&#039;s &lt;i&gt;Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning&lt;/i&gt;, which is easier than Berger (and much shorter -- it&#039;s one introductory section).   I also looked up the discussion of decision theory in MacKay&#039;s info theory and machine learning book --- there&#039;s two pages of example after a discussion and a dismissal of the topic as &quot;trivial&quot; (though not unimportant, of course -- it&#039;s just that it follows pretty directly from everything else).

I don&#039;t know Lindley&#039;s book, but Lindley did some fundamental research in Bayesian stats.  On the more philosophical side, he introduced what is now known as &lt;a href=&quot;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lindley&#039;s_paradox&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Lindley&#039;s Paradox&lt;/a&gt; (Wikipedia).

It looks like Lindley also has a book for the general public called &lt;i&gt;Understanding Uncertainty&lt;/i&gt;.

There are really two courses of study.  There&#039;s the whole philosophy of Bayesian statistics side, which is often motivated decision-theoretically. This is both about the philosophy of science and reasoning in general and about human reasoning and epistemology (this is where Kyburg is relevant).

Then there&#039;s the actual apparatus to carry out model fitting given some notion of loss that you want to apply.  Berger&#039;s book covers both, but it&#039;s basically a math book with some background philosophy. I assume Lindley would cover both the math and the philosophy --- he was  active on both sides.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;d agree that Berger could be intimidating if you don&#8217;t already know math stats reasonably well.  I actually found it useful in that regard &#8212; it was one of the first Bayesian stats books I studied.</p>
<p>There&#8217;s a short discussion in Bishop&#8217;s <i>Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning</i>, which is easier than Berger (and much shorter &#8212; it&#8217;s one introductory section).   I also looked up the discussion of decision theory in MacKay&#8217;s info theory and machine learning book &#8212; there&#8217;s two pages of example after a discussion and a dismissal of the topic as &#8220;trivial&#8221; (though not unimportant, of course &#8212; it&#8217;s just that it follows pretty directly from everything else).</p>
<p>I don&#8217;t know Lindley&#8217;s book, but Lindley did some fundamental research in Bayesian stats.  On the more philosophical side, he introduced what is now known as <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lindley's_paradox" rel="nofollow">Lindley&#8217;s Paradox</a> (Wikipedia).</p>
<p>It looks like Lindley also has a book for the general public called <i>Understanding Uncertainty</i>.</p>
<p>There are really two courses of study.  There&#8217;s the whole philosophy of Bayesian statistics side, which is often motivated decision-theoretically. This is both about the philosophy of science and reasoning in general and about human reasoning and epistemology (this is where Kyburg is relevant).</p>
<p>Then there&#8217;s the actual apparatus to carry out model fitting given some notion of loss that you want to apply.  Berger&#8217;s book covers both, but it&#8217;s basically a math book with some background philosophy. I assume Lindley would cover both the math and the philosophy &#8212; he was  active on both sides.</p>
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		<title>By: rlucas7</title>
		<link>http://lingpipe-blog.com/2012/06/14/01-loss-meaningless-for-predicting-rare-events-such-as-exploding-manholes/#comment-19409</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[rlucas7]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 16 Jun 2012 00:15:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://lingpipe-blog.com/?p=5933#comment-19409</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[What about Dennis Lindley&#039;s textbook Making decisions. The text is less mathematically rigorous as the text is aimed for a more general audience, but is a more readable intro for those with less of a strong stat background. The Berger text is the most complete, rigorous text available but it can be intimidating at a first read.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>What about Dennis Lindley&#8217;s textbook Making decisions. The text is less mathematically rigorous as the text is aimed for a more general audience, but is a more readable intro for those with less of a strong stat background. The Berger text is the most complete, rigorous text available but it can be intimidating at a first read.</p>
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		<title>By: Bob Carpenter</title>
		<link>http://lingpipe-blog.com/2012/06/14/01-loss-meaningless-for-predicting-rare-events-such-as-exploding-manholes/#comment-19405</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Bob Carpenter]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 15 Jun 2012 18:27:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://lingpipe-blog.com/?p=5933#comment-19405</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[BART just does the Bayesian posterior inference.  The classic reference for Bayesian decision theory is

&lt;ul&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Berger, James O.  1985. &lt;i&gt;Statistical Decision Theory and Bayesian Analysis&lt;/i&gt;.  2nd Edition. Springer.
&lt;/ul&gt;

Some of the fundamental motivations for Bayesian statistics are decision theoretic (in the sense that if you don&#039;t follow the proper Bayesian inferences you can be taken advantage of in a betting context, i.e., they can make Dutch book against you (ed. whenever &quot;Dutch&quot; appears as an adjective in English, you know it&#039;s something distasteful; c.f., &quot;Dutch uncle&quot;, &quot;Dutch date&quot;, &quot;double Dutch&quot;).  

For a quick intro to what makes Bayesian stats Bayesian, along with an overview of the inferential apparatus, see my earlier post, &lt;a href=&quot;http://lingpipe-blog.com/2009/09/09/what-is-bayesian-statistical-inference/&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;What is Bayesian Statistical Inference?&lt;/a&gt;.

You can, of course, use decision theory in a frequentist setting or even in non-probabilistic settings with the right formulation.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>BART just does the Bayesian posterior inference.  The classic reference for Bayesian decision theory is</p>
<ul>
<li>Berger, James O.  1985. <i>Statistical Decision Theory and Bayesian Analysis</i>.  2nd Edition. Springer.
</li>
</ul>
<p>Some of the fundamental motivations for Bayesian statistics are decision theoretic (in the sense that if you don&#8217;t follow the proper Bayesian inferences you can be taken advantage of in a betting context, i.e., they can make Dutch book against you (ed. whenever &#8220;Dutch&#8221; appears as an adjective in English, you know it&#8217;s something distasteful; c.f., &#8220;Dutch uncle&#8221;, &#8220;Dutch date&#8221;, &#8220;double Dutch&#8221;).  </p>
<p>For a quick intro to what makes Bayesian stats Bayesian, along with an overview of the inferential apparatus, see my earlier post, <a href="http://lingpipe-blog.com/2009/09/09/what-is-bayesian-statistical-inference/" rel="nofollow">What is Bayesian Statistical Inference?</a>.</p>
<p>You can, of course, use decision theory in a frequentist setting or even in non-probabilistic settings with the right formulation.</p>
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		<title>By: ted</title>
		<link>http://lingpipe-blog.com/2012/06/14/01-loss-meaningless-for-predicting-rare-events-such-as-exploding-manholes/#comment-19401</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[ted]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 15 Jun 2012 05:43:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://lingpipe-blog.com/?p=5933#comment-19401</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Bob, great post.  Can you post references to some Bayesian decision theory sources.  Articles or fundamental texts would be great.  The BART paper linked from your Statistical Modeling post seems a bit specialized.

Thanks!]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Bob, great post.  Can you post references to some Bayesian decision theory sources.  Articles or fundamental texts would be great.  The BART paper linked from your Statistical Modeling post seems a bit specialized.</p>
<p>Thanks!</p>
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