Won’t it be hard to sample the beta parameters densely enough to get a good estimate in the method you describe? I’m thinking that you probably don’t need to sample anyway, because you can analytically compute statistics like means and variances given that you have a beta-binomial form for the sampling distributions. So you could probably just optimize if you want a point estimate based on the kind of matching you suggest.

]]>jim albert taught me that.

]]>I’m not sure how to estimate that other than with the methods I used in the followups. How can I calculate population variance with the set of hits and at-bats I have?

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